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美联储面临 数学难题 :是否过早开始降息周期

来源:516棋牌app 编辑:516棋牌游戏 时间:2020-06-29 点击:3345

美国金融网站Northman Trader的博主、技术分析师Sven Henrich近日发文指出,美联储面临一个数学问题,市场亦是。从总统开始,每一个人都在要求降息,而且是很多人。美联储主席鲍威尔称7月降息为 周期中段 调整,但联储收效甚微,因为在贸易紧张加剧和收益率继续暴跌后的余波中,市场开始抛售。而现在市场要求更多。降息50个基点似乎是市场对9月份的最低要求。其含义是显而易见的:美联储不能让人失望。

图片 | Pixabay

市场目前所反映的绝不是 周期中段 调整:

And what markets are currently pricing in is anything but a mid-cycle adjustment:

这几乎是要求明年降息100个基点。特朗普总统当然希望现在就降息100个基点,并在此基础上再推出一些量化宽松。特朗普在其推特上表示: .....美联储应该在相当短的时间内至少降息100个基点,或许还需出台一些量化宽松政策。如果出现这种情况,我们的经济将会更好,全球经济将会迅速得到大幅提升——这对每个人都有好处!

That’s nearly a 100bp rate cut over the next year.President Trump of course wants a 100bp now AND some QE sprinkled on top of that: .....The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!

暂且不谈这种要求在经济上是否明智,让我们来看看特朗普要求的影响,以及从更长的时间来看,市场要求降息100个基点的影响。

Leaving a discussion about the economic wisdom of such demands at this time aside for the moment, let’s look at the implications of Mr. Trump’s demand, and, on a longer time frame, the market’s demand for 100bp in rate cuts.

问题在于,相对于之前的周期,美联储的弹药非常有限,而这一事实似乎逃过了所有人的视线。

Seethe problem is the Fed has very limited ammunition vis a vis previous cycles and that fact seems to escape everyone.

2020年12月至2020年12月,美联储把基准利率从近零区间上调了9次。这是有史以来最弱的加息周期。2020年,人们仍强烈预计2020年将进一步加息。事实上,高盛在2020年11月时还预计2020年会加息5次。

Between December 2020年再降息50个基点,美联储将仅剩4次——每次降息25个基点——的降息机会。这意味着美联储将在短短12个月内扳回近一半的加息周期。对我来说,这听起来不像是 周期中期 的调整。

Cutting by 50bp in September would leave the Fed with only six 25bp rate cuts to play with. Cutting another 50bp over the next year would leave the Fed with only four 25 bp rate cuts implying the Fed would have given back nearly half of its entire rate raising cy516棋牌游戏cle in just 12 months which took it 3 years to accomplish. Doesn’t sound like a mid-cycle’ adjustment to me.

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